Mother of Oscar, Here I Stand!

26Feb11

Picture
Will: The King’s Speech
Alt. The Social Network
Should: The Fighter or The Social Network

The Fighter is a rote story vibrantly executed, excitingly performed and tastefully crafted. The King’s Speech is a rote story middlingly staged, haphazardly performed and garishly shot. The King’s Speech will be cited as the best picture of the year.

Director
Will: David Fincher, The Social Network
Alt. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Should: David O. Russell, The Fighter

Truthfully, I’m not quite prepared to watch Hooper best Fincher, Russell, the Coens and Aronofsky. I have varying waves of adoration for the four directors’ current films, but their past and present achievements are of a completely different standard than Hooper’s. A triumph for The King’s Speech here would not necessarily be shocking, but I’m still holding out hope that they recognize a very good director for one of his strongest achievements.

Actor
Will: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Alt. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Should: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

A given at this stage. I much preferred Firth last year (though he was in an even worse film), and thought Rush gave a livelier and more affecting lead performance. Yes, Rush is very much lead. This theory can be supported by (what seemed like) an equal amount of screen time, whole scenes wherein Rush is the focus and Firth isn’t even around, and the final shot of the film fading to black on Rush’s face. In other news, it’s a shame that neither Eisenberg or Franco could give Firth a run for his money. The former being too young and subtle a performer and the latter just being too young.

Actress
Will: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Alt. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Should: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Some pundits have been saying that Bening’s really gained traction the past month, and I have noticed her presence increase while Portman’s seems to have subsided. But, then again I’m judging this all through the interweb and who knows what it’s like out in the land of Los Angeles. So, given Oscar’s history I’d say the young, tortured, hottie lesbian will most likely beat out the older, regal lesbian. But, who really cares when the year’s best female performance is sitting right next door? Just like Eisenberg, Williams will simply have to be pleased that her lacerating performance was at least mildly recognized. Not that I’m sure either of them cares.

Supporting Actor
Will: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Alt. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Should: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Three of these performances are lead, but when they’re all this good there’s little reason for complaints. I think Bale, Rush and Ruffalo have unfair advantages as they have more time and opportunities to develop different facets of their characters, but again, they’re all too good for me to moan too much. The kudos also extend to the real supporting performers, with both Renner and Hawkes adding inspired notes to two quite different psychopaths. There isn’t a dull performance among the five, which is really something.

Fassbender should still be here. And win.

Supporting Actress
Will: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Alt. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Should: Amy Adams, The Fighter

A real race seems to have taken shape. If the Academy creams themselves over The King’s Speech then I expect Helena to grab this. If the Academy creams themselves over whipsmart and resilient teenage girls with true grit in a film they probably love, then I expect Steinfeld to grab this. Then there’s the indie villain and the young cutie de-glamming a little, but not quite enough to win. There’s still a part of me that wonders if all this fuss is over nothing. Yeah, Leo is nutso, but she’s still giving a showy, much-awarded performance based on a real person and in a well-liked film. Last year Mo’Nique played a controlling, larger than life mother in a best picture nominee, took even more flack than Leo, and still came out with a gold statue in her hands

Adapted Screenplay
Will: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Alt. Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
Should: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Even if The Social Network wasn’t the best picture runner-up Sorkin would be safe. Clearly structured and wordy and actually good, The Social Network is 100% the kind of screenplay that wins this category. Arndt would be next in line, but a Pixar screenplay has yet to triumph and Toy Story 3 didn’t get the traction I once thought it might.

Original Screenplay
Will: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Alt. Stuart Blumberg & Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Should: Keith Dorrington & Eric Johnston & Scott Silver & Paul Tamsay, The Fighter

Weak bunch this year. The two best films here, Another Year and The Fighter, weren’t the achievements that they were due to their scripting, and the other three range from bad (Kids) to dull (King’s Speech) to flawed (Inception). Most of my picks didn’t even come close, but it’s a real shame Baumbach (a writer’s writer) couldn’t squeeze a second nod out of this branch.

Animated
Will: Toy Story 3
Alt. How To Train Your Dragon
Should: The Illusionist

Respectable trio this time around, even if I didn’t exactly get in a tizzy over Dragon. And for the fourth year in a row, there’s no competition to speak of. Regardless, I’m more than enthused that The Illusionist was able to steal the third slot.

Art Direction
Will: Eve Stewart & Judy Farr, The King’s Speech
Alt. Robert Stromberg & Karen O’Hara, Alice In Wonderland
Should: Jess Gonchor & Nancy Haig, True Grit

The King’s Speech will take this because it’s period and going to win best picture and they utilized a showy wall. Inception won’t because it’s not period and not going to win best picture and the walls don’t stand out like the walls in The King’s Speech do. In other news, how anyone with two working eyes can put Alice In Wonderland and Best Design together in the same paragraph is one of the top five mysteries of life. It’s like citing Stalin for Most Compassion.

Cinematography
Will: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Alt. Wally Pfister, Inception
Should: Matthew Libatique, Black Swan

It’s Deakins’ moment. Even without overdue status, his work on True Grit is tailor-made for winning cinematography awards. And he faces no serious competition. Pfister will have to console himself with an ASC and Thimios Bakatakis will have to console himself with this (link).

Costume Design
Will: Jenny Beavan, The King’s Speech
Alt. Colleen Atwood, Alice In Wonderland
Should: Antonella Cannarozzi, I Am Love

Another battle between two aesthetically challenged films. But, how does one not vote for Cannarozzi’s impeccable designs? And even if you haven’t seen I Am Love, what about Zophres’ lived in, inventive work on True Grit?

Documentary
Will: Waste Land
Alt. Inside Job
Should: Restrepo

One of the toughest categories to predict. Inside Job and Exit have the most exposure, but that shouldn’t be of great significance given that it’s mandatory to screen all five movies before voting. I missed Waste Land when it played Lightbox, but from what I hear it’s the most uplifting and accessible of the bunch. Inside Job might be too depressing and dense for some voters and Exit isn’t about current events.

Editing
Will: Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, The Social Network
Alt. Tariq Anwar, The King’s Speech
Should: Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, The Social Network

Hopefully the energy and verve of Network can see this through to the end. It would also be a joy to see Pamela Martin reign supreme.

Foreign Language
Will: In A Better World
Alt. Incendies
Should: Can’t really say because I haven’t seen three of these yet, but I doubt any of them will derail the Greek.

It’s hard to judge having only seen two nominees but from afar it seems like a battle between Denmark and Canada. In A Better World sounds a little more accessible and easy to swallow and like it could snuggle right up to the last decade’s worth of winners without anyone being too offended. Or maybe it could be Dogtooth, the antithesis of Oscar bait…

Makeup
Will: The Wolfman
Alt. The Way Back
Should: The Way Back, but I haven’t seen Barney’s Version

Don’t understand the notice for The Wolfman, which looked tacky and cheap, but it’s Rick Baker, so it has to be cited. On the other hand, The Way Back’s makeup is top notch. Still, I thoroughly expect to see the Baker and his lovely ponytail giving an acceptance speech.

Original Score
Will: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
Alt. A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Should: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, The Social Network

I was all but ready to predict a Rahman upset, and then I chickened out. Seems like he could pull a Gustavo/Babel style win as 127 Hours certainly seems to have more support than previously thought. But, Desplat is high profile enough to pull this one off, even though it’s close to the weakest work he’s done.

Original Song
Will: ‘If I Rise’, 127 Hours
Alt. ‘We Belong Together’, Toy Story 3
Should: ‘I’m Easy’, Burlesque

With the exception of Gwyneth Paltrow, I don’t think there’s a single person who cares about this category anymore.

Sound Editing and Mixing
Will: Inception
Alt. True Grit
Should: True Grit and The Social Network

Why isn’t Scott Pilgrim here? The sound work there is loud, complex and genuinely original. The nicest thing one can say about this slate is the lack of overlap between the two.

Visual Effects
Will: Inception
Alt. Hereafter
Should: Inception

I’m currently zoning out imagining The Tree Of Life winning this next year and Douglas Trumbull and Malick on the stage talking to each other for a few hours.

…and for completion’s sake:

Animated Short
Will: Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Documentary Short
Will: The Warriors Of Quigang

Live Action Short
Will: Wish 143

And there you are. That means 6 wins for The King’s Speech, 3 wins for The Social Network, 3 wins for Inception, 2 wins for The Fighter and everything else just getting the 1.

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Filed under: Awards, Best Picture, Oscar   |  1 Comment