Final Predictions

24Jan11

Picture

1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Black Swan
4. True Grit
5. The Fighter
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Toy Story 3
8. Inception
9. The Town
10. Winter’s Bone

It’s so very tempting to predict a surprise here. The same eleven films have been in play for what seems like ages and I want something new. I honestly don’t understand: does every single person who has an opportunity to vote with some awards body believe that these ten (along with 127 Hours) are the absolute greatest achievements of the 2010? No room for a small shuffle? Or are these the only films people saw? Or did they not even see all these, they’re just voting for them because they hear the same names bandied about over and over? Anyways: if there is a surprise nomination (please!) I would bet on Shutter Island, Blue Valentine or The Ghost Writer. But, there’s pretty much no chance.

Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
3. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter

The only question mark is whether or not the Coen’s will show up. My guess is people like The Fighter a little bit more. I also can’t stand the thought of Russell getting left behind. I wouldn’t be overwhelmingly shocked to Granik or Affleck show up here either, nor Cholodenko whose face I’ve seen around a lot.

Leading Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Battling it out for those last two spots are Duvall and Gosling. The former would be a pretty depressing selection, the latter quite pleasing. But, I think Bardem has enough support to carry him through. Feels like a bit of a Tommy Lee Jones situation circa 2007.

Leading Actress

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

The actress categories are unbelievably difficult to predict, which is great. I’m betting Kidman gets snubbed the way Jolie did in 2007: big actress, good performance, strong precursors, underseen film. Then there’s the category confusion of Manville and Steinfeld. The former being campaigned as lead while many consider her supporting (she’s not) and the latter being campaigned as supporting while many consider her lead (she is). I’ve had Manville in my predictions since Cannes, but I made a last minute decision to cut her out entirely. Don’t ask, logic rarely factors into this. As for Steinfeld, my guess is she’ll be kept in supporting; Bridges has enough of the leading performance heat to justify her baffling placement. There’s also Swank, Rapace and Swinton to consider, but they would be real shocks and I think there are enough frontrunners to fend them off.

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
5. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network

There’s always one big snub, right? Very little logic behind a Ruffalo shut-out, but it’s what my fingers are telling me to do. Timberlake is going to be the Wahlberg of The Social Network (except that logic doesn’t hold either, because I’m also predicting Eisenberg and DiCaprio wasn’t nominated for The Departed). I’m probably wrong.

Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

Again, really hard category to predict. These five feel pretty solid though. The Fighter women are locked. Steinfeld seems secure enough. Weaver will have enough passion votes. And Bonham Carter will sail along with her movie. However, I wouldn’t spill my coffee if Kunis or Hershey showed up here.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social network
2. Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
3. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone
4. Ethan & Joel Coen, True Grit
5. Ben Affleck & Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard, The Town

Black Swan‘s been showing up here more than expected, but as Nick said: “Screenplay? Really? No matter how many times he says, “But I’m not only casting ze White Swan”?”

Original Screenplay

1. David Seidler, The King’s Speech
2. Stuart Blumberg & Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Derek Cianfrance, Blue Valentine
5. David Michôd, Animal Kingdom

The writers often go their own way (thank god), so I’m never too surprised to not see all the picture nominees represented. Michôd, because I think enough people watched their screeners and Cianfrance, because I think enough people will want to reward him for the whole 12 years thing. My two runners-up would The Fighter and Another Year.

Animated Film

1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. Despicable Me

It pains me to leave out The Illusionist, but Despicable Me has been showing up a lot more than expected. Totally Shark Tale.

Art Direction

1. Eve Stewart, The King’s Speech
2. Robert Stromberg, Alice In Wonderland
3. Jess Gonchor, True Grit
4. Dante Ferretti, Shutter Island
5. Mark Friedberg, The Tempest

It’s terrifying how many craft nominations Alice In Wonderland is going to get.

Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, True Grit
2. Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
3. Wally Pfister, Inception
4. Enrique Chediak & Anthony Dod Mantle, 127 Hours
5. Danny Cohen, The King’s Speech

Unless things are shaken up, this is going to be a pretty dull line-up. It’s a shame that something like I Am Love or The American couldn’t find their way into the conversation. And welcome to another year where Harris Savides is once again a non-entity for awards bodies. Clearly Danny Cohen’s fish-eye lenses were better representations of the form than the combo of both Greenberg and Somewhere. Watch out for Richardson (Shutter Island) and Cronenweth (that social networking thing).

Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, The King’s Speech
2. Mary Zophres, True Grit
3. Colleen Atwood, Alice In Wonderland
4. Antonella Cannarozzi, I Am Love
5. Jeffrey Kurland, Inception

It’s terrifying how many craft nominations Alice In Wonderland is going to get.

Documentary

1. Inside Job
2. Waiting For ‘Superman’
3. Waste Land
4. Restrepo
5. Exit Through The Gift Shop

I haven’t seen most of these so it’s more difficult to predict, but I’m counting on Exit making it through.

Film Editing

1. Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, The Social Network
2. Lee Smith, Inception
3. Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan
4. Dylan Tichenor, The Town
5. Pamela Martin, The Fighter

Tricky category. A lot of contenders. Strong chances for True Grit, 127 Hours and The King’s Speech. But editors seem to like boxing and action more than westerns and royalty.

Foreign Language

1. Incendies
2. In A Better World
3. Life, Above All
4. Even The Rain
5. Dogtooth

Dogtooth? Why not? It’s got this far.

Makeup

1. Alice In Wonderland
2. The Wolfman
3. Barney’s Version

Or Jonah Hex.

Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Inception
2. Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
3. Alexandre Desplat, The Ghost Writer
4. Craig Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
5. Rachel Portman, Never Let Me Go

People have started predicting Reznor & Ross because it’s been recognized so much recently, but I think they’re forgetting this category’s past. They like their melodies pretty.

Note: I REALLY don’t want to see Portman nominated and I REALLY want to Reznor & Ross nominated.

Original Song

1. ‘You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me’, Burlesque
2. ‘I See The Light’, Tangled
3. ‘Coming Home’, Country Strong
4. ‘Shine’, Waiting For Superman
5. ‘We Belong Together’, Toy Story 3

Not a clue.

Sound Editing

1. Inception
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. Tron: Legacy
4. Unstoppable
5. The Fighter

Something always gets in that people don’t see coming. Wanted? Right? My inside sources tell me those sound guys are into Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing

1. Inception
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. Tron: Legacy
4. Unstoppable
5. Toy Story 3

I feel really secure about Inception, Dragon and Tron. The rest could go any way.

Visual Effects

1. Inception
2. Tron: Legacy
3. Hereafter
4. Alice In Wonderland
5. Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World

It’s terrifying how many craft nominations Alice In Wonderland is going to get.

 

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